Over a year after the presidential election in Belarus the authorities of Belarus have almost completed self-isolation of the country. Declaring multi-vector foreign policy A. Lukashenko has severed ties with Russia that has been supporting him for the last 8 years. Having ousted Advisory Monitoring Group of OSCE from Minsk, having no status in the Council of Europe or any other respectable international organization, having rather reserved relations with Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland Lukashenko chose to attack the policies pursued by the Russian president Vladimir Putin.  

The last parliamentary and presidential elections were conducted in the environment where there is no proper rule of law or division of powers, no legitimate Parliament and no free access to the media for the opposition forces. Electoral law in Belarus is far from fair and, inasmuch as it exists, is evaded rather than respected by the state authorities. Above all, the atmosphere of fear created by Mr. Lukashenko persists and, in recent months, has perhaps heightened. As in all totalitarian societies, fear is essential for keeping the system going. Belarus is a police state going to the bad. It remains the worst such country in Europe, and Mr. Lukashenko continues to hold the unenviable title of the continent's most tyrannical leader.  

In recent years both the United Nations committee against Torture and Amnesty International have commented fiercely on Lukashenko's curtailment of basic liberty and freedoms. Hearings on the human rights situation in Belarus were held in Lithuanian and Russian parliament. The issue of kidnapped politicians has become an issue of international community concern. Ad hoc commission to investigate cases of missing persons was set by the Legal Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. While the international community is trying to contribute to investigation of these cases Belarusian authorities have failed to show any progress in investigation of kidnapped persons cases. Moreover they are blocking activities of people and organizations that raise this important issue.

  Now we observe the increase of control of the state over society and further concentration of power in the hands of Lukashenko. Though the Council of Ministers was not an independent body under the new decree that sets the legal framework for the activity of the government it has been stripped even more of its powers. It has become de facto a department of Administration of President. One year after the elections it became obvious that the government has failed to produce any meaningful plan to reform the ailing Belarusian economy that is heading full speed towards the economic crisis. The gas crisis with Russia is likely to add to acceleration of systemic crisis in the whole economy.

Assault on human rights and freedoms is becoming even more blatant. Closure of the independent paper “Pahonya” in the city of Grodno and forced labor sentences to its editor-in-chief and his colleague, closure of the paper “Nasha Svaboda” and extremely high fines on its publisher and editor, closure and forced labor sentence to editor-in-chief of the paper “Rabochi”  - these are just a few facts of persecution of independent media and social activists. Criminal and administrative persecution of ordinary people and political leaders for taking part in demonstrations, severe beating of peaceful demonstrators  continues. Political and social activists especially on the regional level are denied the right to work. These are just a few facts of Lukashenko’s new old agenda.

The resoluteness of the authorities to close the united Civil Party is becoming obvious. The United Civil Party received 7 official warning from Ministry of Justice for allegedly violation the legislation. Chairman of the UCP is under tremendous pressure. Recently he has been violently treated by KGB in the street. He was pushed into a car and brought to KGB office. There he was given an official warning that his activities (meeting AMG OSCE Ambassador in Belarus, meeting US Embassy officials in Minsk, taking part in training course in Germany) are in violation of Belarusian legislation. KGB warned his that if he persists in acting like that he will be accused on treason according to Article 356 of the Criminal Code. The authorities failed to explain such behavior. Unfortunately a few formally opposition structures have joined Lukashenko and the authorities in their campaign against the UCP.

It is obvious that declared liberalization did not cover the political sphere either. A. Lukashenko refused to have any dialogues with the opposition. Beating of the Kuropaty complex defenders by police and burning the tent where they lived to ashes, attacks on trade unions, continuation of offending both opposition and government employees are evidence of keeping old policies. The United Civil Party worked out “A strategy of social economic reforms”, “Concept of budgetary policy and Tax reform” and Concept of Pension Reform. It is about to present its vision of the military reform and Utilities reform. The UCP programs and suggestions were sent to the government suggesting to begin a dialogue but no response has been received. Attempts of the opposition, independent think tanks to start a dialogue on economic and security issues were left unanswered by the authorities. On October 23 A. Lukashenko ordered to throw Vice Chairwoman of the Russian parliament Irina Khakamada and Chairman of the Union of Right Forces party Boris Nemtsov from the country. These politicians came to Minsk to take part in the international conference on Belarusian – Russian relations. Lukashenko is getting more and more nervous as he has ceased to be the only voice from Belarus heard in Russia. The UCP together with Union of Right forces is working on the concept of development of relations between the countries based on the EU model. Our strategic goal is joining European Union and Belarus should build friendly relations, create legal framework for fruitful cooperation with all its neighbors.

A. Lukashenko reluctantly declared liberalization of economy but no major steps have been made to liberalize any branch of it. The situation in economy is deteriorating. Social and economic reserves of the regime are running out. In order to pay wages A. Lukashenko ordered enterprises and collective farms to take loans and he ordered state controlled banks to give loans. The National bank “sponsored” the whole scheme by printing money. The only reliable source of investment is printing money by the National bank. In 2001 the annual inflation was 46%. For 10 months of 2002 it almost reached 27%. The annual plan for inflation (20 –27%) is highly unlikely to be fulfilled. To ensure economic growth investment is needed. Belarusian authorities bargained with a few Russian investors but no deal has been closed. They declared reforms in agriculture but no concrete steps have been made either. It is clear that if A. Lukashenko gives away economic power the whole structure will break up. It is like a Hobson’s choice for him: liberalization will bring decentralization of decision making and weaken his personal power but would mean more jobs, more capital and competitiveness whereas lack of liberalization will keep the system stable for a certain period of time until the existing resources are gone and people and investors run out patience to wait to “promised land”.  

A. Lukashenko promised to pass a law on registration of legal entities (it takes about 70 – 90 days to register a company and costs $500 – $2000). It has not been done. A new procedure of licensing was promised (now about 1500 kinds of activities are licensed). No result. Russian companies were promised shares of a few Belarusian state enterprises but all privatization deals have been suspended so far as A. Lukashenko refused to give away control over Belarusian enterprises. All privatization plans are put on hold. Though Decree № 40 was abolished (it gave president power to confiscate any property without decision of the court) but there are still legal procedures to confiscate property without the decision of the court. The rule of “Golden Share” makes formal ownership of stocks in a stock holding company meaningless. Recently Lukashenko declared his disagreement with the main propositions of the monetary union with Russia and accused Russia of economic subversive activities. Thus he let us understand that he was determined to keep two major things under his control: money (emission) and property (no privatization).

There are no changes in foreign policy either. After the presidential election dependency of the Belarusian regime on Russia increased but the strategy of relations with Russian remained the same. A. Lukashenko insists on getting more and more aid, makes promises to sell Belarusian enterprises and keeps talking about Slavic friendship, integration and synchronization. He puts forward such conditions for forming one state that the refusal of the Kremlin is the only possible response. The Belarusian leader makes the best use of contradictions between Russian oligarchs and speculates on the sensitive topic of integration with Russia. In Belarusian – Russian relations the conflict of strategies, concepts of social economic development is obvious. Lukashenko tries to arrange another barter deal: a virtual Constitutional Act of the Union State in exchange for real economic dividends. V. Putin does not buy this propaganda trick as it has been used a few times in the past. The Russian president does not need ritual signing of another Union agreement. In May 2002 The Union of Right Forces headed by Boris Nemtsov and The United Civil Party of Belarus headed by Anatoly Lebedko signed a cooperation agreement and the Concept of Relations Between Russia and Belarus. It is a viable alternative to Lukashenko’s attempt to restore the Soviet Union. In the light of a new NATO Russian agreement position of Lukashenko looks like an absurd anachronism.

September 11 events destroyed two ideological pillars of Lukashenko foreign policy. First of all the old construction “”Russia is our friend and ally and the West is our enemy”. Now the West and Russian are friends or partners at least. The best friend and ally can not be an ally of your enemy at the same time. Something should be changed in this situation. September 11 buried the idea of pan-Slavism, i.e. building a Slavic state to counterbalance the West. It was a purely ideological construction but after the USA and Russia became partners it turned into an exotic utopia. So Lukashenko faces the need to change foreign policy. Belarus got a chance to improve relations with the West but it is missing the chance. Lukashenko’s wish to take part in Prague NATO summit is not the result of the consistent implementation of a new foreign policy pattern but an emotional response to Russia’s reluctance to give him its unconditional support.

A. Lukashenko wants to improve relations with the West without changing anything in the country. In response to statements of a few Western politicians to stop isolation policy towards Belarus the official Minsk hardened its position and demanded to change the mandate of the Advisory and Monitoring Group of OSCE in Belarus. The Belarusian leader took the position of the West as a sign of weakness and pushes hard to get concession without giving anything in return. Even after declaration of the breakthrough in relations between NATO and Russia Lukashenko keeps his own opinion and want to build a hostile to the West military block. This kind of policy does not fit the Russia foreign policy agenda.   Development of the situation more than a year after the presidential elections let us conclude the following: first of all any changes in Belarus will occur only to the degree that they do not jeopardize full control of Lukashenko over economy and society; secondly, the head of Belarusian state will change his policies only if social and political risks from further conservation of the existing system will be higher than risks of initiating reforms. Thirdly united efforts of all democratic forces and organizations including Council of Europe, OSCE, EU alongside with the USA, Germany and Russia and their working out a common policy towards Belarus is needed to get rid of the last authoritarian state on the map of Europe. Fourthly as Lukashenko is left without any allies in the region and the economic situation in the country is deteriorating and the opposition is determined to fight the regime it is extremely important to increase support of efforts of the Belarusian society that is eager to break up the isolation and become a full fledged member of the international community.