On January 19, 2004 six leading political parties of the Republic of Belarus - United Civil Party, Belarusian People's Front, Belarusian Social Democratic Hradama, the Belarusian Party of Communists, Belarusian Labor Party and Belarusian Green Party - alongside with more than 200 non-government organizations and associations formed the People’s Coalition «5+». It is a major victory of all pro-democratic forces in Belarus. The Coalition of ideologically different parties is based on the fundamentals that any civilized political force should support: human rights and freedoms, sovereignty of the country and democracy. We are to bring democracy and the rule of law first before we argue about policy differences. The Coalition came out with the list of 220 people who will run for the parliamentary elections in autumn 2004. The list includes not just members of political parties but the representatives of education, cultural and business communities. The Coalition is planning to hold 110 campaigns in each constituency and one national campaign that will promote its the common program.  

The only national political party that has not joined the Coalition is Belarusian Social Democratic party “Narodnaya Hramada” chaired by Nikolai Statkevich. The thing is that Mr. Statkeviuch stated that his priority is the presidential elections in 2006. it is not the first time that he refused to be a member of the team of democratic political parties. He claims to have a coalition but in fact it is just he and a few persons that represent phantom NGO structures. He has failed to produce any strategy for the parliamentary election yet.

Another political group that decided to leave the Coalition just 2 days before its official presentation is the group “Respublika”. Its informal leader Mr. Frolov stated that he is determined to run for the president. That is why he proposed all political parties that have been working together as the Coalition to joint him and accept his leadership. The group of deputies of the Chamber of Representatives is represented just by 4 or 5 deputies. They do not have any structures in regions and they entirely relied on intellectual and political support of the members of the People’s Coalition ‘5+”. Some experts believe that the authorities deliberately fuel conflicts among members of the democratic opposition in order to make the public see that the opposition is not united. It seems that Mr. Frolov and his few colleagues fell prey of the cunning plots. At the same time the People’s Coalition hails the courage of these deputies and continues to negotiate with them on the joint policy.

Other structures that did not joint the People’s Coalition are marginal. They are rather covers of ambitions leaders who are interested in the process, not in the result. They are sometimes supported by so called political entrepreneurs too. Thus we can say that all major political forces in Belarus that have parliamentary elections as a top political priority for 2004 joined their efforts and work together.

However this positive message is difficult to convey as there are few independent newspapers left in the country. This is the biggest challenge that the united opposition should face in the coming months before the elections. The People’s Coalition is working on the concrete plan to promote its values and the program. The democratic opposition appears more and more a constructive force. The United Civil Party and a few think tanks addressed the government and the president with the alternative budget for 2004 and the major tax reform. In January they drafted the alternative privatization law and sent it to the government proposing cooperation. Earlier the Concept of pension reform and the military reform were proposed. The nomenclature is becoming more aware of alternative ways to run the country and see the opposition as a constructive force.

Another challenge that the united Belarusian opposition face is the fragmented, unclear position of what is called “the West”. The authorities make the best use of differences in opinions and attitudes of various international and European institutions and organizations. The fact that Belarus is far down the list of priorities of European structures, that ordinary Europeans are little aware of the situation in Belarus is beneficial for Belarusian authorities. Besides they also pay on potential contradictions and attitudes of Russia and European Union countries. That is why it is important for the major European institutions to coordinate their position on Belarus and send a clear signal both to ordinary Belarusians and the Belarusian democratic opposition. 

Economy is taking revenge

The New Year and Christmas celebration over Belarus is facing one of the biggest crisis in its economic policy. On January 22 Russia declared that it would stop gas supply for Belarus as the Belarusian government has failed to sign the agreement for gas deliveries in 2004. If the agreement is signed on “Gazprom” terms the whole budgetary policy in Belarus will have to be revised. Belarus has been receiving cheap gas for the last 10 years. It was a major subsidy for the government and a source of huge rent for so called political entrepreneurs. The gas crisis displays the growing gap between Russia and the Belarusian regime. It is an important development for Belarus as it may lead to major revision of Moscow’s policy towards its alleged ally.

Gas and energy prices up, Belarusian enterprises will further lose competitiveness. Belarusian economy has not been touch by reforms yet. It is marred by structural discrepancies and cumbersome bureaucracy. Inflation in 2003 reached 25,4% and budget arrears increased threefold. The National Report on Human Development in the Republic of Belarus in 2003” states that if the government pursues the present economic policy about 30% of existing jobs will be under threat of destruction. It is worth noting that this report was written by a group of economists who represent state research and educational institutions.

The population is more and more vulnerable to growing economic imbalances. The average wage in 2003 was about $126 and the average pension – about $48. At the same time utility prices skyrocketed and the state monopolies have failed to cut costs. As a result, the average family pays about 40 – 50 USD for a flat (including electric energy bill). Costs of living soared and brought about 80% of pensioners below poverty line. 37% of the Belarusian population lives below the poverty line and more than 7 mln. people have the monetary disposable income less than the minimum consumer budget. It means that they can hardy afford normal food, clothes, health and education at the same time. Without Russian subsidies which are estimated to be $1 – 1.5 bln. the social crisis will likely to deepen. Paradoxically it is grey economy that cushions consequences of bad government policies.             Uncertainties and anxieties in the Belarusian society are making it more fragmented and disintegrated. The demographic situation is critical. Beginning from 1994 death mortality rate exceeds birth rate. This tendency is especially vivid in big cities where the pensioners amount to 255 of the whole population. The number of suicides among men grew from 56 cases per 100 thousand men in 1995 to 60 cases in 2002.

Alcohol consumption grew from 6.7 liters per capita to 9,7 liters from 1995 to 2002. The share of smoking women grew from 3,6% to 6,3%. 505 of men are permanent smokers. In 1995 there were just 8 registered HIV cases. In 2002 there were 915 new cases. The number of crimes connected with drugs increased from 15 per 1000 people in 1995 to 53 in 2002. More than 50% of families fall apart. Belarus is one of the world’s leaders in divorces. The number of children born outside marriage grew from 13,55 to 21,4%. 14,4% of all families in Belarus is single parent families. This sad statistics is in sharp contrast with joyous official numbers of GDP growth (6,5% in 2003). The official statistics shows that the economy is booming but it makes people poorer and enterprises less competitive.

Belarus has been pursuing the policy of disrespect to property rights both of national and foreign companies. It is estimated that in 2003 Belarusian customs and control bodies confiscated goods worth of $200 mln. Both Russian and German ambassadors in Minsk complained about widespread practices of foreign goods seizure. The authorities favor using the so called “golden share” that gives the government control over any company in which it owns even one share. Recently the head of stare threatened to expand the use of the golden share to enterprises that are 100 per cent private but used to be state owned in the past.

No wonder Belarus is the biggest loser in the competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). In 1992 – 2002 it managed to attract just $160 of FDI per capita. Without Russian investment to build the gas pipeline in Belarus this indicator is just about $35. To compare EU countries attracted 44 times more FDI, Poland – 7,3 times more, Lithuania – 6,8 time and Kazakhstan – 6 times more. According to European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Transformation index Belarus holds 24^th place out of 27 countries (only Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are behind). Belarus holds 145^th place (out of 155 countries) on Index of economic Freedom made by Heritage Foundation and wall Street Journal in the company of Iran, Cuba, North Korea and a few other African countries.

Belarus is not rated by the World Economic Forum on macro and microeconomic competitiveness (102 countries) and it is 128^th in the world on the Index of creditors’ trust. Hence, it is obvious that the Belarusian social economic model that is based on reproduction of Soviet style institutions and norms of economic behavior has failed. It is highly inefficient in economic terms. It undermines the social security system. It is immoral as it favors loss making debt generating enterprises at the expense of those which manage to create jobs, make profit and pay taxes. To crown it all the Belarusian model is highly corrupted and brings about regional instability as it can not be an integrated part of the European security system. So this year in many respects is crucial for development of the political and economic situation in Belarus. Both the united opposition and the West should take their chances and make a major breakthrough to democratize Belarus and bring it back to the common family of European nations.