Syarhey Sidorski's new old cabinet on June 2 presented its 2006-2010 action plan to the House of Representatives of the National Assembly. Full of statistical and verbal mysticism, the plan has something in common with Dan Brown's Da Vinci Code.
No one expects this cabinet to come up with intellectual solutions, challenging decisions or market-oriented proposals. The chairman of the Council of Ministers came up with a plan that should have been expected from a man who is patiently waiting for an opportunity to resign.
The five-year plan appears ambitious. The government pledges to raise people's real income by 49 to 56 percent, real wages by 52 to 58 percent and real pensions by 50 percent, and maintain the unemployment rate below two percent.
It intends to ensure sustainable development of small towns and adjacent rural areas by building new plants, encourage private businesses and create conditions "for a post-industrial system of employment of the population." Education spending is slated to increase to 10 percent of GDP. The government's demographic security paradigm is very simple: "increase the birth rate, decrease the mortality rate, improve life expectancy, strengthen marriage and family relations, improve living conditions for families and optimize migration." More specific measures include an increase in a lump-sum birth allowance, maternity benefits and financial support for families.
Pensioners, students, small towns, rural communities, health services and builders - all of them need "investment resources" and support that the government vows to provide on the basis of macroeconomic stability. The government declares its intention to reduce the overall tax burden by three to four percent and consolidate the fiscal system. It expects the Belarusian currency to remain strong, losing no more than five percent of its value a year. The National Bank has been charged with increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves to $3 billion in five years.
The government plans to gradually liberalize prices, phase out cross subsidies and eliminate price differences. It says it will use pricing to encourage restructuring of the economy and make domestic goods more competitive in Belarus and abroad. It wants to see exports growing faster than imports, considering this to be a reliable method to boost "the economic potential and improve living standards."
The government calls for restructuring exports "by encouraging the application of high technologies; adjusting the value and structure of imports necessary for achieving the projected GDP growth."
The cabinet is convinced that Belarus has put in place a legal framework that meets international standards and requirements of the World Trade Organization (WTO). It expects Belarus to join the WTO by the end of 2010. The proportion of GDP attributable to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) is projected to rise to 30 percent in 2010. To achieve that goal, the cabinet plans to "form a rational business structure."
SMEs may expect some financial support from the government, but as before it will be channeled mostly to giants like BelawtaMAZ, Homselmash, the Belarusian Steel Works, Atlant, Belaruskaly, Palimir, Mahilyowkhimvalakno and Belshyna. These enterprises will never get enough.
The government plans to spend tens of millions of US dollars on energy efficiency programs. It will also allocate considerable amounts for the oil processing industry and agriculture, which means that the Council of Ministers sticks to Soviet-style conservatism in choosing priorities.
It is not clear from the plan who pays for the ambitious programs and who finances the growing appetite of social groups and state enterprises. And what about the likely rise in oil and gas prices? But these must be too boring things to tell members of the lower chamber.