UN reports predict that Belarus' population may shrink to 9.4 million by 2015 and to 7 million by 2050. "Brains" are leaving for where they are really appreciated. Young people prefer to start their careers where they are paid more. Human capacity as one of key components in national economy is being destroyed now.
Demography is closely linked with socioeconomic policy, quality of business climate and safety of life and property. Happy and prosperous people do not search for happiness abroad and are more willing to give birth to children.
As of July 1, 2005, Belarus' population is 9,771,300 people. It fell by 28,000 in comparison with January 1, 2005. In the beginning of 1995 the number of inhabitants in Belarus was 10,210,400. This means Belarus lost 439,100 people over the past decade.
The death rate has been higher than the birth rate since 1993. The ageing process is getting faster. As of the beginning of 2005, the number of children between 0 and 15 years is 1,682,800. It shrank by 765,500, or 31.3 percent, since 1994. The share of the working-age population decreased from 2,124,600 to 2,080,000, or by 2.1 percent.
According to Statistics Minister Uladzimir Zinowski, currently, one in five Belarusians are in retirement age, whereas in 1959, the share of retirees was 50 percent smaller and amounted to 13.5 percent." Under UN criteria, population is considered old, if the number of people above 65 is seven percent. Belarus has 14.5 percent of such people in 2005. Belarus' birth rate in 1960 was 24 per 1000 people. Then this indicator fell to 16.5 in 1985, 9.9 in 1995 and 9.1 in 2004. Just 89,000 children were born in 2004. Simple reproduction does not work in Belarus. The total birth rate, or the number of births per one woman between 15 and 49, decreased from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.2 in 2004.
Minister Zinowski has an explanation as to why young girls do not want to become mothers: "It is of course not because of a lack of material resources but because of a decline in the biologically natural ability to sacrifice and because of a lack of loyalty to the traditions of the nations."
It is indeed sad that high-ranking government officials continue to think that women should give births to supply soldiers to the army and produce workforce for the economy, and that giving birth is a sacrifice rather than a continuation of the woman's profound moral values.
The Belarusian authorities are obviously neglecting spirituality and family values in their pursuit of GDP growth and confrontation with the West. The number of abortions, divorces and incomplete families is extremely high. Together with 89,000 of births in 2004, as many as 71,700 instances of interrupted pregnancies were registered. The share of children born outside marriage amounted to 23.9 percent in 2004, whereas it was 8.5 percent in 1990. About 12 percent of families are incomplete. About 30 percent of marriages are broken during the first five years.
The best argument in favor of giving births is creating conditions for earning decent incomes for parents and having a good infrastructure of childcare. The current situation is that even one child increases the family's probability of being sent below the poverty line in many cases. According to the Belarusian statistics ministry, about 22 percent of households with children had their disposable incomes below the Minimum Subsistence Budget. The respective figure for families with three children is 51.5 percent and 23.9 percent for incomplete families.
Death rate is growing, while birth rate is declining in Belarus. Total death rate amounted to 14.3 percent in 2004, a 30-percent increase since 1990. Although child mortality has been on the decline, this indicator is still two times worse in comparison with developed countries. Life expectancy at birth was 63.2 years for men and 75 years for women in 2004. Men in rural areas live six years less on the average. This is a result of cheap alcohol and malnutrition.
As of 2004, the most frequent causes of deaths in Belarus are blood circulation diseases (55%), tumors (13.4%), external causes (11.8%) and respiratory system diseases (3.6%). The share of people who died of those causes amounted to 83.6 percent. The government's policy of supporting sports and investing in huge hockey arenas does not lead to making people more fit. Sport for children in schools and respective facilities are at an extremely low level.
Emigration from Belarus reached its peak in 1990 - 136,000, including 97 percent to Israel. The number of people leaving the country was stable at the level of 10,000-14,000 people between 2001 and 2004. About 53,000 people left Belarus over that period, including 33,000 for other CIS countries. The share of emigrants to the US was 10.5 percent and to Germany - 9.1 percent in 2004.
The largest flow of immigrants comes to Belarus from Russia (40,300), Ukraine (11,600), Kazakhstan (7,600) and Baltic states (3,000). Many immigrants are people in their pre-retirement or retirement age. They are an additional burden for public budget and lower quality of human capacity.
In general, the demographic situation in Belarus indeed needs radical measures. Current birth and death rates, as well as the ageing process and the damaged family institution call for immediate action on the part of both the government and the opposition to search for ways of saving the country. The demographic issue is much more important for Belarus than all political campaigns taken together.

Population dynamics (as of the beginning of the year, in thousand people)

Source: Newsletter of the Administration of Belarus' President, № 7, 2005