The Minsk Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers celebrates its 20th anniversary these days. Back in 1986 the Soviet authorities faced an economic crisis and decided to allow individuals to set up cooperatives. The Communist Party obviously underestimated the potential of the first entrepreneurs. Not only did they make a lot of money but also seriously weakened the totalitarian empire.

Changes are ahead for Belarus. But exactly what will change depends on whom you consider. Changes are awaited despite the fetish of stability that dominates the social and economic behavior of the Belarusians. The condition of the business cycle in 2006 and insistent Russian declarations about European prices for gas and world prices for oil exported to Belarus suggest that the Belarusian authorities would have to go much farther than simply changing name plates on office doors of officials responsible for economic policy. They are likely to make attempts to withdraw from the tough paradigm of national socialism.

If the quality of Belarusian-Russian relations were to be judged solely by the dull figures of Belarusian trade balance, one would have the impression that the two countries are at war in trade. In particular, Belarus has lost 49.7 percent of trade with the Russian capital, the most dynamically developing and richest market in Russia.

Oil is now like a magic wand of the Belarusian economy. Plus fertilizers and petrochemical products. The respective producers operate under one roof: the Belarusian State Petrochemical Concern, or Belnaftakhim. It is a holding that brings together 78 companies critically important for Belarus. The most precious ones, like Belarus' family silver, among them are Naftan, an oil refinery in Mazyr, Hrodna Azot, Belaruskaly and others.

The amount of Belarusian foreign trade of goods and services was 122 percent of GDP, or 111 percent without services. With such a strong dependence on external markets, it would be logical to expect liberalization, more active talks on WTO entry, more of foreign investment and efforts to reduce costs for the movement of raw materials, components and technologies. Instead, the country gets more protectionism and stronger bias toward the export of mineral products and fertilizers.

Importation is one of the most remarkable failures of the Belarusian government in 2005. After an unprecedented rise in 2004, by 41.4 percent, imports were projected to rise by up to 10 percent in 2005. However, imports rose by just 1.3 percent. The average prices of imported products increased by 3.1 percent, while the physical volume of imports shrank by 4.6 percent. Belarus is steadily turning into a closed economy, a Venezuela in Eastern Europe, but working on imported oil and gas.

While speaking at the 3rd All-Belarusian People's Assembly, Alyaksandr Lukashenka spoke about the need for creating stable rules for business. He again reiterated his call for de-bureaucratizing. It was first put forward more than one year ago but no significant successes have been achieved yet. The country's performance in 2005 show that the burden of administrative regulations in the economy is getting only heavier and government agencies is continuing to produce huge amounts of regulatory documents.

An outstanding performance from the fuel and energy sector has marked the year of 2005 for the Belarusian economy. On the whole, the output of top ten leading industrial sector rose by as much as 96.9 percent over the past three years. The rising prices of oil and petroleum products, Russian market demand and government-stimulated demand in the country became three major factors behind the impressive growth. With the world economy growing very fast, it would be surprising if Belarus with its inherited production infrastructure were in recession.

The population of Belarus became by 4,900 people smaller in 2005. Gross domestic product can be now divided into a small number of inhabitants. The country's GDP doubled in dollar terms between 2002 and 2005; inflation went down from 34.8 to 8 percent; people's bank savings increased to $2.5 billion; foreign reserves rose to $1.2 billion. The average nominal wage in 2005 was $205, up from $150 in 2004, and pension allowance - $98, up from $63 in 2004. Russia gave Belarus another $3-4 billion in energy-related subsidies and made it even more addicted to the oil and gas drug. Being confident in its genius planning skills, the Belarusian government did not even think about adapting the economy to the conditions of genuine competition. The year of 2005 has been another year of missed opportunities.

The Minsk-based Institute of Privatization and Management conducted a survey in the end of 2005 to investigate the situation of business development in Belarus. Representatives of 400 companies were asked 59 questions to that end. Their answers can be used to draw a credible picture of Belarusian business.