It has been 100 days since Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has ruled the country for 12 years, was sworn in for a new presidential term. Statements and decisions made by top officials after the spring election suggest that economic changes are looming on the horizon. Businesspeople, officials, the opposition and monopolists - all anticipate economic changes.

The Financial Times released its ranking of the world's 500 largest companies known as FT500 in mid July. Belarus is not represented in Eastern Europe's Top 100 table. It is not that Belarus has not a single company larger than Pfleiderer Grajewo, which is at the bottom of the list with a capital of $558 million. The ranking means that Belarus is not part of the civilized world market based on fair and open competition.

The current happenings in Belarus' foreign trade cannot simply be called luck. This is a tremendous chance history gives to a country poorly endowed with natural resources. But whether this chance will be taken remains a major question.

The finance ministry has been discussing fiscal policies for 2007. Alyaksandr Lukashenka made it clear that he was not satisfied with the tax system. However, the finance ministry does not seem to have a clue how to ease the tax burden on enterprises before 2010.

Syarhey Sidorski's new old cabinet on June 2 presented its 2006-2010 action plan to the House of Representatives of the National Assembly. Full of statistical and verbal mysticism, the plan has something in common with Dan Brown's Da Vinci Code.

It is a common knowledge that Belarus' economy is dependent on the manufacturing sector. This is the largest sector, the largest debtor, the largest contributor to GDP and a generator of structural problems. The government channeled its assistance into large state enterprises, while other companies received nothing but output targets they were required to meet. The manufacturing sector's performance in the first quarter proved that the government was wasting its time. Instead of restructuring the industry, it keeps on redistributing funds through the budget.

The 15th anniversary of the Belarusian national currency is a good occasion to summarize the National Bank's performance. The rubel is a litmus test for monetary policy and for the country's financial system in general.

The new composition of the Belarusian cabinet does not have a single person who could be called a convinced market advocate. If the financial situation of the country's enterprises gets worse and if it gets harder to fill public coffers, ministers and heads of key state production groups will immediately complain about private businesses and accuse them of taking bread from state enterprises.

The first quarter of 2006 was entirely in the shadow of the presidential campaign. The Belarusian economy entered a dangerous phase of post-modernist statistics under the influence of propagandistic considerations. Judging by statistical reports, Belarus is almost a Hong Cong. But while talking to company directors, one can see their concern about growing problems and expectation of change.