Научно-исследовательский центр Мизеса

The National Committee, some sort of the opposition's shadow cabinet, has recently unveiled a draft economic program of the united pro-democratic forces. Titled, "Be the Master of Your Own Country," the document is now being submitted for public debate.
Following the official registration of the opposition's single candidate, the National Committee is expected to study proposals that it would have come from the public and integrate the most important of them into the final text. Then the document will become a basic action program of the pro-democratic forces.
The platform of the democratic opposition consists of five priorities: 1) health family; 2) respect for work and honest competition; 3) fair legislation and responsible state; 4) civilized peace and freedom; and 5) development, science and progress. Today's Belarusian authorities are very good at manipulating statistics. They know how to isolate "points of growth" and fill them with cheap resources - at the cost of taxpayers, of course. Most people in Belarus still do not know what GDP is. And even fewer people can understand that their country's GDP growth does not make their life effectively better. Effectively means in this case that people should say themselves that they feel satisfied and happy rather than hear it from state propaganda. Now Belarus is one of four countries in transition (of a total of 27) in the region where people are mostly unhappy.
What can make people happier and better satisfied with their lives? It is family, first of all. Thus, the healthy family is in the center of attention in the National Committee. This is particularly important against the background of a clearly faulty policy of the ruling government in that respect.
The current demographic situation and the condition of public health are the most dangerous and profound crisis in the history of Belarus. The number of children shrank by more than 400,000 over the past decade. The total population fell by 450,000 people. The number of incomplete families is constantly on the rise. More and more children are left by their parents to the state.
A moral crisis in families gets even worse under a crisis of physical health. The incidence of diseases rose by 36.8 percent between 1990 and 2003. There is a sharp increase in the amount of nervous diseases. People are living in the condition of permanent stress. Belarus is consuming excessive amounts of alcohol. Per capita consumption of pure alcohol in 2005 was more than 10 liters. And this official alcohol trade figure does not take into account homemade vodka. The situation is considered dangerous already above eight liters.
The percentage of absolutely healthy children fell from 60 to 30 percent over the past 20 years, while the number of children with chronic pathologies rose from 10 to 22 percent. That Belarus has more hospital beds per 10,000 populaiton than Germany, France or the US does not help much. That Belarus has more doctors per 10,000 population than Austria, France or Sweden does not help either. The country is getting weaker and older. This is a fact.
This is the reason why the National Committee chooses the health family as its priority, rather than macroeconomic stabilization or institutional transformation. To stimulate births and enhance family capacities, the National Committee suggests providing targeted assistance for each child: a family gets $3,000 for the first child and an additional $2,000 for the second one plus the possibility to get an interest-free loan for 20 years to buy 25 square meters of housing. If a family gets third child, it gets $1,000 and an interest-free loan for 25 years to buy 60 square meters of housing. Another idea is to raise the pension allowance by 30 percent in case the family has two adult children who work and pay taxes in Belarus. If the number of working children is three or more, their parents get a 50 percent increase in their pensions.
About 150 to 200 state enterprises are the pillars of the Belarusian economy. Their contributions are 45-50 percent of public budget. They do work hard, but fiscal burden has to be lessened for them. They will not be able to cope with higher taxes and administrative pressure. Tax base has to be expanded, private business development should be stimulated, and work with foreign partners, including transnational corporations, should be intensified.
The country does not actually have a policy of developing a competitive private sector and creating a favorable business climate today. There is a powerful bureaucratic apparatus between the producer and the consumer. It has turned business registration procedures into a nightmare. It humiliates and destroys businesses by endless inspections and licenses.
The National Committee believes that the constitutional provision about equal conditions for all economic entities should be properly observed. A sound tax reform is needed to reduce the number of taxes from 40 to six. Belarus' investment attractiveness will improve, if the golden share rule is abolished and goods are not confiscated from foreign businesses. If all business development measures envisaged by the National Committee are implemented, Belarus will get into top 30 economies in terms of business climate attractiveness and top 40 in terms of competitiveness. Fulfilling these tasks is much more important than the present government's annual race for 16 key economic development targets.
The National Committee offers a systemic administrative reform: a new mobile cabinet authorized to pursue an economic policy, eight ministries and 12 agencies would replace the existing structure of government. The Presidential Administration would lose functions that duplicate those of the cabinet. Powers of local authorities would be expanded significantly. State government bodies should be banned from owning shares of for-profit companies. It would the most effective strike against corruption.
In the European direction, the National Committee suggests starting with joining the Council of Europe and the European Free Trade Agreement, as well as concluding a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union and taking part in the European Neighborhood Policy to implement four freedoms: movement of goods, services, capital and workforce.
Partnership with Russia is strategically important. A full-scale free trade zone and other institutions of strategic partnership should be established in deed and not in word. The current Belarusian authorities are merely simulating the support of science and innovational development. The country is now strongly dependent on cheap Russian energy resources. A share of high-tech production does not even reach five percent in the total volume of production.
If the National Committee's economic reform program is fulfilled, the amount of investment in science and innovation will increase to $1 billion. Belarus will become part of production and sales chain of at least 100 large transnational corporations. Production of new enterprises will account for 15-20 percent of export.
Extending the Internet all over Belarus and providing access to up-to-date databases for schools and universities will help create a powerful generation of domestic experts to manage business and government. This is needed to turn Belarus into a free, civilized and prosperous country.